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The Strait of Hormuz disruption is feeding through to fuel, freight, and feedstock costs across ocean, air, and trucking, even as carriers continue to operate against a backdrop of structural overcapacity, according to data released by AlixPartners.
Trade policy is moving in two directions at once: a court challenge to the 10% Section 122 tariff sits alongside fresh sector-specific actions, including 100% duties on patented pharmaceuticals and proposed measures tied to countries supplying Iran.
The result is a freight environment where pricing is rising faster than demand, landed costs are harder to forecast, and shippers are being asked to make sourcing decisions inside a narrowing window.
Key takeaways:
- Ocean spot rates moved up in early April, with Shanghai–Los Angeles up 9% to $2,910/40ft and Shanghai–New York up 7% to $3,671/40ft; Maersk has sought approval for emergency bunker surcharges, signaling that recent firmness is disruption-driven rather than demand-led.
- Air freight capacity through the Middle East is down roughly 30%, lifting global average spot rates to $2.86/kg, up 14% year over year, while contract durations continue to shorten as shippers hedge against volatility.
- Truckload capacity tightened for a fourth straight month as diesel jumped 44%, the tender rejection index climbed to 14.83, and spot rates converged with or exceeded contract rates across dry van, flatbed, and reefer.
- Rail volumes posted their strongest first-quarter start since 2019, with carloads up 1.7% and intermodal up 1.4% in March; the Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger refile has been pushed to April 30.
- Warehousing is rebalancing rather than loosening: rents continue to climb toward $9.59 per square foot even as vacancy edges down, and the March Logistics Managers Index hit 65.7, with transportation prices at 89.4, the highest reading since March 2022.
- New April actions include 100% tariffs on patented pharmaceuticals, expanded Section 301 forced-labor probes across 60 countries, and proposed tariffs tied to countries supplying Iran.
- U.S. import data continue to show a multi-year shift away from China, with imports down 49% since 2018; Mexico has now overtaken China as the largest U.S. vendor base in value terms, while Vietnam and India have grown 299% and 89%, respectively.
- European road freight is absorbing a parallel fuel shock, with EU pre-tax diesel prices up roughly 42% month over month and several member states responding with tax cuts or price caps.
