When consumers see the price of produce continue to rise, they’re probably not looking to fertilizer as the cause. In addition to broader inflation that has driven prices up 6.1% year-over-year for fruits and vegetables, according to the May 2026 Consumer Price Index, transportation, labor and availability are driving the costs even higher.
Today, much of the increase comes from the cost of moving fresh food through the supply chain, as fuel prices, constrained trucking capacity, labor availability, refrigerated transportation and import tariffs that make it more expensive to get produce from the field to the distribution center to the retailer.
The World Bank projects that fertilizer costs will rise 31% in 2026, and that creates a long-term problem for food, beverage, produce, and consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies. Those costs do not reach the shelf right away. Growers may be selling produce today that reflects the lower cost of fertilizer last year, while the next planting cycle could carry much higher input costs before anything is even in the ground.
That is the core issue facing growers, businesses and consumers alike: produce prices are starting to rise from the logistics costs companies are managing today, while fertilizer will add another wave as growers price future crop cycles. As that volatility moves through the supply chain, companies will need real-time visibility into how higher input costs affect sourcing decisions so they can adjust earlier and protect profit before margin pressure reaches the shelf.
Transportation is the cost consumers are feeling now
Avocados coming from Mexico, California grapes moving into Midwest distribution centers and Florida tomatoes moving through regional markets all depend on speed because fresh produce can’t sit in storage while companies wait for a better freight rate. Unlike non-perishables, fresh fruits and vegetables need fast movement, cold storage, and available labor at every handoff. When transportation gets more expensive, the added cost has a shorter path, and a more direct out-of-pocket impact on the consumer.
Consumers are feeling that pressure now because of fuel, trucking, and the logistics of moving goods on time. Fertilizer is part of the same cost environment, but its full impact follows a different timeline. As cost of raw materials needed for the fertilizer continues to rise, so does the duration of the impact.
Fertilizer hits the next crop cycle
Strait of Hormuz disruptions are tightening supplies of key fertilizer inputs like ammonia and sulfur, pushing manufacturers’ costs higher. Where a truck rate can change the cost of a shipment today, a fertilizer increase changes what growers can afford to plant next season.
Seasonal crops like asparagus and rhubarb moving through the market now were likely grown with fertilizer purchased before the latest price spike. At this time next year, the same crop may look different if growers must buy or renegotiate fertilizer at much higher rates, forcing them to choose whether to absorb the increase, adjust what they plant, or pass more cost through the chain.
Even if shipping conditions improve, fertilizer bought at a higher rate still must move through the next crop cycle before consumers see the full impact on the shelf.
Fewer suppliers leave less room to absorb the shock
The next issue is not only the price of fertilizer, but who has enough room to survive the pricing cycle.
Large agricultural companies have more ways to protect themselves because they can pre-book fertilizer, negotiate better terms or use their size to absorb volatility for a period of time. Smaller farms, regional suppliers, and carriers have less financial flexibility, less leverage, and less time to adjust when fertilizer prices move from roughly $350-400 per ton to $900 or more.
When smaller players reduce capacity or leave the market, the problem changes from an input-cost issue to a supply-based issue. Retailers still need produce, food companies still need inputs, and consumers still need food on the shelf, but fewer suppliers mean fewer backup options when the next disruption hits.
Companies must know where costs are already locked in
When fertilizer prices jump, food, produce and CPG companies must know which crop cycles and future orders could carry higher input costs. When freight capacity tightens, they must know which delivery windows and customer commitments are exposed. And when a supplier cannot absorb higher costs, they need to know whether another source is available before the issue becomes a shelf-level problem.
Many companies already have pieces of this information, but it often sits siloed across pricing, purchasing, inventory, transportation and supplier teams. When they do not see the same picture early enough, they react after the cost has already moved through the chain.
Instead of waiting for the impact, companies must plan around the lag by understanding what they have already secured, what is still exposed, and where the next cost increase will arise. That gives them more room to adjust sourcing to protect critical orders before increasing the shelf price becomes the only option left.
How earlier decisions create more room to protect supply, margin, and the bottom line
Fertilizer volatility can change what growers plant, how suppliers price future commitments, how transportation plans are built, and how much margin companies have left before those costs reach the customer.
Spikes like this require organizations to orchestrate their supply chains, giving them the ability to connect those moving pieces across the business and turn the scattered signals into coordinated, well-informed interventions. In practice, that means pricing, inventory, supplier commitments, transportation plans, and customer orders are not managed in isolation when one cost spike can affect all of them at different points in time.
Incorporating real-time visibility across manufacturers, suppliers, and customers gives companies the operating view they need to anticipate those changes before they become margin or service problems. If fertilizer prices jump, companies should be able to see which future crop costs are exposed, which suppliers or orders carry risk and where teams still have time to adjust sourcing, transportation or pricing.
Looking ahead, fertilizer prices will likely continue to rise and fall with global supply, energy costs, and weather conditions. The companies that handle that volatility best will be the ones that can spot changes early and understand how those costs might affect sourcing, transportation, inventory, and customer demand. Having better visibility across the supply chain makes it easier to adjust plans before higher costs create bigger problems downstream, giving teams more time to protect supply, manage margins and keep operations running smoothly.
