Over the past 20 weeks, the Strait of Hormuz has experienced extreme disruption due to an ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran. After opening one month ago, further escalation resulted in the Strait closing again. As a result, vessel traffic through the Strait remains less than 20% of pre-conflict levels, with hundreds of vessels waiting in the region.
Recently, the Houthis announced a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, expanding the conflict to the Red Sea and further spiking global oil prices.
Recent data from project44 details the downstream supply chain impact of these events, including how diversions rose, which routes absorbed them, and how that pressure affected port congestion and cargo volumes across the region.
Key takeaways:
· Diversions are plateauing at 4 times pre-conflict levels. Since week 9, every week has fallen inside a 3,718-5,404 shipment band, compared to the pre-conflict baseline of 1,118 shipments per week. The steady volume and recent increase of diversions around the Persian Gulf reflect the extreme uncertainty and significance of Hormuz as supply chain choke point that lacks effective alternative routes.
· UAE diversion volume is highest in most weeks, though the difference vs. Saudi Arabia has narrowed sharply from its week 4 peak but remains volatile rather than closed. The UAE recorded a higher weekly total than Saudi Arabia in 18 of 20 weeks, while Saudi Arabia’s total was higher in weeks 17 and 19. Qatar showed the steepest proportional decline of the four countries, from 316 in week 1 to 46 in week 20, an 85% drop.
· Reassigned shipments are concentrating on a small number of short intra-Gulf lanes rather than extending outside of the Middle East. The single busiest lane, Dubai (Jebel Ali) to Khawr Fakkan (9,370 cumulative shipments), carries more volume on its own than the four lowest-ranked lanes in the top 10 combined (8,163). Six of the Top 10 lanes touch Khawr Fakkan on one end, together accounting for 61% of Top 10 cumulative volume.
· Two new destinations entered the top diversions in week 20: Jeddah to Port Said East, Egypt (not present until week 19, ranked 8th in week 20) and Jeddah to Tangier (Tanger-Med), Morocco (ranked 13th in week 20, up from rank 124 in week 19). Intra-Middle East lane volume remains prominent week over week.
· Import dwell at Navi Mumbai has risen to 21 days, more than 4 times its pre-conflict baseline as India absorbs cargo traditionally bound for the Middle East. Mersin, Turkey’s largest container port, has seen dwell increase by ten days since the reopening four weeks ago and now sits at 27.12 days of average dwell.
· In terms of export dwell, since dropping to under 20 days when the Strait was reopened, Abi Dhabi has more than doubled over the past several weeks and currently sits at 48.5 days.
· Disruption in the region doesn’t only delay oil; it forces longer diversion routes that raise fuel costs across the entire supply chain. In addition, petrochemical shortages ripple into plastics-dependent manufacturing from automotive to electronics to packaging. Fertilizer disruptions carry outsized consequences given planting-season timing and the lack of strategic reserves, with effects reaching far beyond the Middle East into major agricultural exporters like Brazil and India.
