Cargo fraud drains $30 billion from the global supply chain every year, and identity verification failures are one of the biggest factors. From coast to coast, federal policies are shifting, states are rolling out new technologies, and fraudsters are getting increasingly sophisticated by the day. For anyone managing supply chains, verifying drivers, or securing facilities, the landscape is about to change in ways to prepare for now.
While hospitality venues such as bars and nightclubs are increasingly adopting advanced ID scanners and fake ID detection technology, many logistics firms still rely on manual checks, paper logs, or outdated systems, creating opportunities for bad actors to exploit.
As we move into 2026, expect this gap to get smaller, with identity verification in cargo and logistics becoming a top priority, mainly driven by regulatory pressure, insurance requirements, and the need for greater supply chain accountability.
The synthetic identity problem gets worse before it gets better
Synthetic identity fraud has remained the fastest-growing type of fraud, surpassing identity fraud and credit card fraud. 2026 will be the year it truly hits logistics and supply chain operations, exposing the weak links in driver onboarding and cargo authentication processes. Unlike traditional identity theft, where someone steals your entire identity, synthetic fraud blends real and fake information to create identities that look legitimate at face value.
For the cargo and logistics industries, this means driver credentials that pass initial checks but belong to someone who does not exist. IDScan.net analysis of over 350,000 ID scans from drivers in the cargo and logistics sector found that 3.19% of identity documents presented were fraudulent or expired - up to 4.5 times higher than the 0.7-2% fraud rate seen in bars and nightclubs. The challenge of detecting fake documents has become far greater due to how indistinguishable synthetic identities are becoming from an authentic ID. Creating fake documents has never been easier with the advancement of AI, and the methods are evolving more quickly than most verification systems can keep up with.
The economic pressures being felt from rising interest rates and job uncertainty are only making matters worse. When people are struggling financially, some will resort to identity fraud as a way to save money or bypass security protocols for other, usually financial gain. Combined with a growing black market for forged commercial driver's licenses (CDLs), inconsistent enforcement of ID verification standards across logistics operations, and the increasing reliance on contract drivers and third-party logistics firms, the conditions are ripe for fraud to flourish.
AI becomes both the problem and the solution
Generative AI is fundamentally changing the identity verification game. As with many industries, AI used in the right way can provide the solution to the problem that AI itself is bringing to market.
On one side, AI-powered tools create deepfakes and synthetic identities that are genuinely hard to spot. Research shows 78% of consumers are worried about deepfake threats to their identity, but only 44% felt confident they could actually identify one. If consumers can't spot them, this means plenty of frontline staff will struggle to spot these same threats.
Ultimately, AI is a tool to be used in defense against the same technology, creating sophisticated fakes to its ability to identify fraudulent activity with a degree of accuracy that human verification simply cannot match. The organizations that will come out ahead in 2026 are those investing now in AI-driven verification tools, not just waiting until fraud hits their operations.
Mobile IDs are expanding
This trend needs its own mention because it is no longer a distant possibility but something that is being actively rolled out. Six states launched mobile driver's license programs in 2024, and eight more are expected to join by the end of 2025. By 2026, we'll see meaningful adoption of digital credentials, including driver's licenses and port access badges.
However, businesses' ability to actually adopt and verify these mobile IDs is falling behind the pace of play. The technology requirements are complex, and many logistics operations simply aren't yet equipped with the tools to adopt it.
For freight forwarders and carriers, this means planning now for how you'll verify mobile IDs - not just assuming you can keep checking physical cards forever in a change that we’d expect to become the norm in the near future.
Regulatory changes will demand stricter verification across the board
2026 is expected to see regulatory shifts that will ultimately affect how we verify identities for everything from government benefits to facility access. The Department of Education's crackdown in 2025 is setting a precedent that we're already seeing ripple with more agencies and programs demanding robust identity verification. The Department of Transportation is also clamping down on non-domicile CDLs is another regulatory move that is directly impacting the supply chain and cargo industry, signaling that federal agencies are tightening verification standards across multiple fronts.
There’s also stricter enforcement with e-verify, including re-verification requirements that show that most industries are headed toward continuous verification rather than one-time checks. When we combine this with the ongoing discussions around voter ID processes and access to government loans, these changes are normalizing stricter verification standards across all sectors. For this industry, it is creating compliance obligations and operational challenges that must be prepared for.
Trust is declining. Continuous verification is the answer
Perhaps the most significant shift we are seeing is a move away from point-in-time verification toward continuous verification models. The traditional approach, which is to verify someone once when they're hired or credentialed, then trust that verification indefinitely, is breaking down.
Organizations are realizing that verifying someone's identity on day one doesn't guarantee that they’re using a valid identity a year later. Credentials expire, fraud occurs post-hire, and identities can be compromised over time. In 2026, the logistics industry is heading towards building more continuous trust. Instead of relying on a single, one-off background check, a growing number of providers will be putting ongoing verification systems in place.
This shift is fundamentally about recognizing that threats evolve and security needs to be flexible and adapt with the changes. Continuous verification will move from a best practice to an industry standard.
Looking ahead to 2026
All of these trends are intertwined and are challenges that require coordination between carriers, facilities, technology providers, and regulators alike if they are to be addressed effectively. The good news is that the industry isn’t standing still, and advances in AI-driven verification, mobile ID adoption, and secure credentialing frameworks are beginning to close the gap between policy ambition and on-the-ground capability.
For freight forwarders, carriers, and logistics providers, 2026 will mark the point where preparation must turn into execution. With mobile IDs entering widespread use and verification standards tightening across federal and state levels, the organizations investing in stronger identity systems now won’t just stay compliant, they'll protect their operations against the next generation of cargo fraud.
