Consumer spending appears to be holding up, even amid persistent economic uncertainty and fluctuating sentiment. But brand loyalty is eroding, digital influence is rising, agentic commerce is no longer experimental, and inflation, evolving tariff policy, and the higher cost of capital forces dealmakers to navigate a complex, less predictable landscape.
In 2026, the winners won’t be those who buy the most, but those who buy what’s next, according to data released by PwC.
“The boldest dealmakers will use M&A not just to expand, but to disrupt their own business models and to acquire capabilities that help fill gaps, pivoting faster, shaping demand, and staying relevant in a consumer landscape that won’t stop moving,” the study says.
Key takeaways:
- Deal volume is down slightly, but values are rising, as buyers pursue fewer, bolder bets in brand-rich or operationally innovative targets. An early wave of megadeals reflected a structural response to fragmented consumer behaviors, margin pressure, and the need for bolder portfolio focus.
- Corporate owners are divesting underperformers and concentrating capital on assets with emerging, resilient demand and margin potential.
- Global companies are spinning off business units and reassessing their brands to better focus on growth areas.
- Sponsors remain active, but the playbook has shifted. Growth-stage assets with clear value creation levers are winning out over scale-only targets, but select sponsors found scale opportunity early in the year.
- International buyers, especially from Asia, continue to seek U.S. brands for their pricing power, premium equity, and proven platforms.
- Investors are acquiring businesses that support product development—like manufacturers, ingredient suppliers, and packaging companies—to tap into fast-growing categories. Bolder companies should go further, considering innovation capability acquisitions as a moat for future industry shifts.
- 70% of total consumer deal value came from less than 1% of transactions over the period Jan. 1-Nov. 30. Megadeals continue to drive overall market value.
- Expect a wave of megadeals and spin-offs as CPG companies race to survive category erosion and recapture growth. Scale alone won’t be enough.
- The K-shaped consumer economy is widening. High-income shoppers continue to spend, while lower- and middle-income segments are stretching budgets and redefining value. Agentic commerce is accelerating this divergence, creating both margin risk and new demand pockets. Retailers that align portfolios with both premium intent and value-driven missions will lead, especially those with flexible, loyalty-first models and the infrastructure to deliver at moment-of-intent speed.
- As IPO markets reopen, exits will pick up, but the biggest plays will happen in the middle. Mid-market sponsors are best positioned to scale smaller brands that move fast, know their audience, and operate natively in digital and cultural channels. Expect increased sponsor interest in carve-outs and take-privates where they can accelerate reinvention without public market pressure and create infrastructure for long-term value creation.
“We’re in the early innings of an M&A-driven industry reconfiguration that happens every 10 years or so. Expect more big moves as companies respond to complex multi-generational consumer demands,” says Mike Ross, U.S. consumer deals leader. “This isn’t a wait-and-see market. In 2026, deals that reshape, not just resize, portfolios will separate the CPG leaders from the legacy players. The bold won’t just chase scale. They’ll buy speed, signals, and tech-enabled advantage.”
