A stagnation in global trade growth will affect 2026 demand for transportation and logistics, according to a new global transportation and logistics outlook report from Atradius.
“At the beginning of this year, we anticipated global transportation and logistics output to increase by 4.3% in 2025 and by 3.7% in 2026. However, we have now revised this forecast downwards to 2.5% and 2.4% respectively, as we expect the pace of trade growth to ease significantly in the last months of 2025 and through 2026. This contrasts with the earlier months of the year, where front-loading ahead of trade war restrictions directly boosted global trade growth, while AI-related investment increased the trade in goods related to data center infrastructure and other AI equipment,” the report says.
“Tariffs are increasingly weighing on trade activity, and uncertainty drags on companies´ investments. This has an impact on all stages of the goods economy. Less production and transport of raw and intermediate goods for manufacturing and less shipment of goods from factories to consumers will inevitably spill over to the freight-focused transport sector segments, like trucking and ocean freight,” the report adds. “In order to improve their supply chain resiliency, industries and businesses that have been focused on just-in-time production may keep greater levels of inventory as a safety buffer. As a result, we expect greater demand for warehouse storage facilities in order to store inventory, avoid delays, and reduce the impact of supply chain disruptions.”
Key takeaways:
· There are more challenges ahead for the U.S. transportation and logistics industry. Consumer confidence is currently declining, and the labor market appears to be cooling off. Both could affect demand for shipping of durable and non-durable consumer goods.
· At the same time the sector faces significant challenges from trade distribution, labor shortages, and geopolitical instability. After growing 1.8% in 2024, expect sector output to decrease by 0.6% in 2025, followed by a modest 1% rebound in 2026.
· Tariff increases on U.S. imports have reduced freight volumes especially on the transpacific routes from Asia to the United States. The water transport segment is expected to contract by 4.7% this year and by 0.1% in 2026.
· Trucks are the key transport mode for goods in the United States. Land transport is expected to grow only 0.3% in 2026 after a modest 0.4% increase this year. Weaker trade activity with Canada and Mexico is impacting trucking, which plays a vital role in cross-border trade under the USMCA framework. Labor shortages are contributing to delays and rising cost, and the restrictive immigration policy could exacerbate this issue.
· Air transport output is forecast to increase by 1.6% in 2026, mainly on the back of continuing growth of higher passenger volumes, while air freight is benefiting from increased demand for faster e-commerce delivery. However, there is some downside risk, as the government‘s decision to end the de minimis exception for all parcels entering the United States has prompted several countries to suspend small package deliveries to the United States, most of which are undertaken via air freight.
· In the mid-term, government investment in infrastructure improvement should benefit the sector by promoting greater supply chain efficiency, reducing costs, and stimulating demand for transportation and logistics services.
· Meanwhile, Chinese transportation and logistics output is forecast to grow by 4.4% in 2025 and by 3.3% in 2026, largely on the back of resilience in both industrial production and exports. So far, US tariffs have not meaningfully dented the overall trade balance, as Chinese exports to Asia, Africa and Europe have increased.
· While export volumes to traditional partners like Europe and the United States could face headwinds, China’s ports remain among the world’s busiest and are likely to sustain high output in the coming years. This is due to increasing trade with emerging markets and ongoing innovation in port logistics.
· Air cargo benefits from continued advancements in logistics, and digitalization will enhance operational efficiency, supporting growth and resilience.
· Expect the Chinese transportation and logistics sector will benefit from government support for businesses and investment in infrastructure (domestic and international) in the coming years. Those investments show China´s ambition to ensure that it remains a major hub in global supply chains and logistics.
· After a 2.4% increase this year, expect Eurozone transportation and logistics output to grow by only 0.9% in 2026, mainly due to the region’s protracted industrial recovery.
· Industrial production and transport demand surged in H1 of 2025 due to U.S. companies putting in orders to front-run tariffs, and only pulling back mildly in the second quarter. However, U.S. tariffs and increasing Chinese competition have started to weigh on industrial output, trade and investment in the Eurozone, which will deprive the transport sector of a key demand pillar over the next year.
· Expect that over the coming two years, transport and logistics demand will be mainly driven by services and household consumption.
· Expect UK transport and logistics output to grow by 1.4% in 2026. However, ongoing staff shortages hamper sectoral activity and growth. In the haulage sector, rising wages, vehicle replacement expenses, and fuel prices are squeezing margins.
· Sustainability efforts will remain a priority, with haulage companies transitioning to electric vehicles and warehousing businesses focusing on reducing emissions. These shifts require significant upfront investment, which will further stretch resources in the coming months. Cybersecurity remains a critical issue for haulage firms, as attacks have highlighted vulnerabilities in the sector.
· Due to tight margins and fierce competition, the credit risks will remain high across the British transport sector.
