For the first time in 2025, December marked an increase in U.S. exports to China compared to 2024. This comes just two months after a trade discussion between the two countries. However, U.S. imports from China remain lower than 2024 rates, according to project44’s January Tariff Report.
“It is abundantly clear that the new tariffs passed by both countries have had major impacts on demand for goods along these lanes. With the decrease of U.S. imports from China, new sourcing strategies are beginning to emerge for U.S. imports,” according to project44.
Key takeaways:
· Blank sailings on key U.S. trade lanes are down 53% compared to their annual peak in April once “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced. However, there was a 35% increase compared to blank sailings in November, showing there is still volatility in sailing schedules.
· Blank sailings on China–U.S. and Asia–U.S. routes are down versus December 2024, except for Asia to the US, which is up 69% from 2024. This could be tied to recent tariff announcements from Mexico on numerous Asian countries.
· While tariffs on major trade partner China have been reduced in recent months, their effects continue to ripple through supply chains. A closer look at U.S.-China trade flows in 2025 reveals sharp swings tied directly to tariff actions and market anticipation.
· On the import side, shipments from China to the United States are trending 34% lower through December compared to 2024, with overall volumes being 28% lower in 2025 compared to 2024. These swings illustrate how tariffs and front-loading behavior created early-year increases followed by sustained weakness through the summer and fall. Despite falling imports from China to the United States, China’s trade surplus has hit $1 trillion for the first time, showing that China has strengthened trade relations with other countries and is not dependent on the United States for their exports.
· In response to the U.S. tariffs, China passed their own tariffs on U.S. goods, impacting exports from the United States to China.
· On the export side, shipments from the United States to China are under even greater pressure, trending 38% lower year-to-date. Despite a low year for U.S. imports into China, November showed the smallest decrease compared to 2024 since January, at just 23% lower than November 2024, and December had an increase of 13% compared to 2025 marking the first positive month for U.S. exports to China in 2025.
