A study released by Deloitte indicates that 2026 could prove to be a watershed moment, forcing retailers to flex their “adaptability” muscles in new and challenging ways.
Here’s five dynamics set to shift – and reshape – the retail industry in 2026.
1. Value-seeking consumers: A lasting, foundational shift
In 2026, retailers may face a structural shift toward value-seeking behaviors as consumers contemplate what constitutes a fair price. Four in 10 Americans now demonstrate deal-driven or cost-conscious habits, and even higher-income households are reassessing what “value” means. Nearly seven in 10 retail executives agree that behaviors such as trading down, shopping value channels, or swapping convenience for savings represent a structural change, not a temporary response to inflation.
As much as 40% of consumer perceptions of a brand’s value stems from factors other than price. Nearly 70% of respondents plan to expand value-priced assortments. Strengthening private-label products was the second-highest cited growth opportunity. Retailers are also focused on enhancing omnichannel experiences (46%) and strengthening loyalty programs (36%). One-quarter (26%) of industry executives have already honed in on personalization through AI capabilities, while an additional one-third (35%) expect to have personalized AI recommendations in the next year.
2. AI in commerce: From experimentation to execution
An overwhelming majority of retailers either already using, or set to use, AI in the next 12 months for core operational capabilities. Retailers are also planning for the next evolution of AI, with nearly 68% of respondents expecting to deploy agentic AI for key operational and enterprise activities within 12-24 months.
In many ways, agentic shopping is already here. In the world of e-commerce, discovery, decision-making, and checkout are quickly shifting from retailer-owned channels to AI intermediaries, with referral traffic from ChatGPT and other AI chats now accounting for 15-20% of total referrals for some retailers. By 2030, some industry analysts estimate that AI agents could handle as much as 25% of global e-commerce sales.
Retail executives are cognizant of the potential disruption—nine in 10 expect AI to be increasingly used over search engines by 2026, while half expect the collapse of today’s multi-step shopping journey by 2027 as shopping moves into a single AI-driven interaction. For example, 81% of retail executives surveyed believe that generative AI will weaken brand loyalty by 2027. Currently, 44% of respondents say that their company’s legacy systems are slowing down innovation.
3. Marketing and customer experience: Reimagined in the age of AI
In 2026, retailers should be able to lean on an increasingly AI-enabled toolkit to optimize marketing decisions and execute at scale. Marketing leaders are already taking notice of the transformative potential, as 67% of retail executives surveyed expect to have AI-driven personalization capabilities within the next year, unlocking tailored experiences, targeted campaigns, and loyalty programs that adapt dynamically to each customer.
Retail executives are so confident in these AI tools that 94% expect to bring more marketing activities in-house. For retailers operating retail media networks (RMNs), in-housing offers an even larger upside. Eighty-eight percent believe their RMN will be crucial for revenue and profitability in the year ahead, and 79% expect expansion into non-endemic advertising, enabling them to monetize audiences with highly targeted ads beyond their own product catalog.
4. Supply chain transformation: Building resilience amid unreliability
Supply chain transformation has emerged as a critical lever for resilience and competitiveness. With 95% of retail executives surveyed anticipating rising costs due to global trade policies, the focus appears to be shifting toward reimagining supply chains to manage cost pressures and operational complexities.
The urgency for transformation is underscored by the 66% of respondents who plan to restructure their supply chains through measures such as onshoring, nearshoring, and diversifying their supplier base if input costs rise in 2026. Currently, 30% of retailers surveyed leverage AI for supply chain visibility, and this figure is expected to climb to 41% within the next year. Further, 59% of executives surveyed anticipate a positive return on investment from AI-driven supply chain initiatives within the next 12 months.
5. Financial fortitude: Margin management and cost discipline
Nearly all executives surveyed anticipate higher costs in 2026 due to changes in global trade policies (6% foresee a significant increase, 55% a moderate increase, and 34% a slight increase). Despite these challenges, retail executives remain positive, with 82% forecasting margin increases in 2026.
Retailers are planning a range of tactics to offset these rising costs. For example, 67% foresee an increase in the threshold for free shipping, 72% plan to shift their product mix toward higher-margin or value-added items, and 73% intend to gradually adjust retail prices upward. But rising costs will also push retailers to adopt a financial approach that impacts the core of their business. Of the 95% of executives anticipating an increase in costs, 76% say their company is likely to adjust investment priorities, and 82% expect their organizations to shift capital allocation toward more profitable ventures.
“In the year ahead, the fundamentals that have long anchored retail, such as customer centricity, financial discipline, operational excellence, and data-driven insight, will remain vital, but this year will test retailers’ adaptability in new ways,” the report says. “Value-oriented consumers, AI-driven commerce, reimagined marketing, resilient supply chains, and smarter margin management are converging to reshape how the industry competes and grows. The retailers that lead will likely be those that treat adaptability not as a defensive posture, but as a strategic capability. For retail leaders, the mandate is clear: Focus on what is in your control, double down on the fundamentals, elevate them with AI and insight, and meet consumers with value. Those who do should shape not just the year ahead, but the next era of retail.”
