Freight forwarders worldwide are bracing for another year of margin pressure in 2026, according to new analysis released by OntegosCloud.
“Forwarders are heading into 2026 with commercial drag coming from every direction, softening rates, unpredictable surcharges and ongoing geopolitical disruption,” says Oliver Gritz, co-founder of OntegosCloud. “What this analysis shows, however, is that the biggest threat to profitability is not just external volatility, but what forwarders fail to see and control inside their own operations.”
The findings reflect a market entering a prolonged period of structural headwinds. Container rates have fallen sharply across several trade lanes, vessel capacity continues to expand, and global demand remains soft, limiting pricing power and intensifying pressure on forwarder profitability.
Here are 5 risks most likely to erode profits in 2026.
1. Margin compression
Margin compression is driven by sustained low or normalized freight rates, with those surveyed expecting yield pressure to continue as overcapacity and soft demand persist. In fact, 92% of respondents said they anticipate returns to tighten further in 2026.
2. Pricing swings
Respondents also pointed to pricing swings emanating from liner General Rate Increases (GRI), surcharges and contract pricing, with ongoing Suez and Red Sea uncertainty reshaping routing and cost structures. Nearly 63% of those surveyed said surcharge volatility is likely to be their most disruptive external risk next year.
3. Geopolitical risk
A third major concern was geopolitical risk and the likelihood of congestion cycles, with carriers cautioning that even a full reopening of the Suez Canal could trigger congestion waves. Fuel and insurance costs remain unpredictable across Middle Eastern and Indian Ocean corridors, and 54% of forwarders said geopolitical instability will directly affect their operating costs in 2026.
4. Softening demand for imports
The fourth risk identified was softening demand in the United States and Europe, where import volumes are uncertain as consumer spending slows. Here, 52% of respondents said weakening demand in major consumer markets will affect their volumes and pricing power.
5. Financial leakage
Respondents expressed growing concern about financial leakage linked to analogue workflows and fragmented operating models. They cited missed surcharges, delayed billing and inaccurate cost capture as persistent issues. Analysis shows that 74% of forwarders believe manual invoicing and data-entry processes are responsible for the majority of preventable leakage, with non-automated files experiencing significantly more leakage than automated ones.
“Forwarders are entering 2026 with a tighter profit environment,” says Gritz. “Rates are normalizing, demand is uneven and geopolitical disruptions will continue to distort cost structures. The companies that succeed will be those that turn margin management into a real-time capability, moving from reactive decision-making to proactive profitability control.”
“The biggest blind spot we see is preventable leakage in the form of missed surcharges, delayed billing and poor cost capture. In a year where freight rates will likely be bearish, this is no longer an operational nuisance, it is a strategic threat. Eliminating leakage is now one of the fastest ways forwarders can protect Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) and cashflow,” he adds.
“2026 will reward margin makers, not market takers. Forwarders that continue to run with manual workflows, fragmented data and delayed visibility will feel every shock in the market. Those who digitize core processes, enforce clean data and manage profitability at the shipment level will outperform regardless of how volatile the market becomes. The opportunity is huge. With modern margin-intelligence systems, forwarders can achieve world-class profitability levels again,” Gritz says.
