The deals getting done in CPG and retail this year aren’t about chasing scale. They're about staying relevant as consumer preferences evolve.
Early movers stand to gain the most. But in Q1 2026, deal value more than doubled year-over-year, according to the latest research from PwC.
“The CEOs getting deals done right now aren't reacting to a cycle. They're responding to a structural shift. The consumer many portfolios were built around is gone, and the leaders who recognize that are using this window to reposition before activists, regulators, or the market force their hand,” says Mike Ross, consumer markets deals leader, PwC US.
Key takeaways:
• CPG deal value more than doubled year-over-year in Q1 2026, even as deal volume fell for the fourth consecutive year. A small number of transformational deals are reshaping entire portfolios.
• Mega-deals are getting done, and take-privates are accelerating, but leveraged transactions in the $100 million to $1 billion range remain difficult to finance, creating selective opportunities for strategic buyers with strong balance sheets.
• Private equity continues to take public retailers private, viewing the sector as broadly mispriced, not broadly impaired.
• Companies are paying premiums for access to wellness brands and first-party data, as key forces continue affecting consumer behavior.
· Three key forces are driving the shift and disrupting the CPG sector: persistent affordability pressure (from grocery inflation, shrinking federal food assistance, and consumers redefining what “value” means by making tradeoffs) is shifting where dollars are spent; the rise in adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss medications is changing how consumers make choices about food, beverages, and other consumer goods; and regulators, retailers, and shoppers are reshaping what sits on a shelf and how it's labeled.
· The next six months in CPG and retail M&A will be shaped by a wave of portfolio restructuring on the sell side, a narrow set of deal themes drawing premium valuations on the buy side, and a widening split between retail formats that work and ones that don’t.
· Financial results are driving divestitures. Total shareholder returns at many of the largest CPG companies have trailed the broader market for years, and nearly half of CPG executives say that the way their business is currently organized will not survive the next decade.
· Major food and beverage portfolios are already in strategic review. Expect more divestitures, faster, of non-core brands from large CPG companies.
· Activist investors are forcing the issue. 2025 was a record year for activist campaigns globally, with the majority of large campaigns carrying an explicit M&A demand—divestitures, spin-offs, or strategic combinations. Companies that don't move on their own find that shareholders will move them.
· Companies with proprietary consumer data carry premiums.
