Global GHG emissions for the first half of 2026 were 0.2% higher than in the first half of 2025, according to Climate TRACE.
In fact, preliminary estimate of total global year-to-date emissions is 29.7 billion tons CO₂e, showing that progress toward decarbonization is occurring unevenly across countries and sectors.
Key takeaways:
Global greenhouse gas emissions increased marginally in the first half of 2026, rising 0.2% compared with the first half of 2025.
The largest growth in emissions came from transportation, specifically road transportation. Declines in emissions from power, manufacturing, and shipping helped limit the global increase in GHGs.
Notably, emissions declined slightly in the two largest emitting countries, China and the United States, while India and Brazil saw the biggest increases in absolute emissions in the first half of the year, effectively canceling out the gains made in China and the US.
Power sector emissions declined, despite concern that disruptions in oil and gas markets would push countries to utilize more coal for electricity generation. Shipping emissions also declined, likely due to impacts from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Emissions from buildings and waste increased by an estimated 0.6% each. Meanwhile, manufacturing emissions declined by 30.1 million tons of CO₂e, or 0.5%, and power generation emissions fell by 22.9 million tons of CO₂e, or 0.3%, helping keep the overall increase in global emissions small.
The energy market chaos did not lead to a spike in power emissions. Climate TRACE data show that in the first half of 2026, emissions from predominantly coal-fired assets fell by 33.5 million tons of CO₂e, or 0.7% compared with the same period in 2025, while emissions from predominantly gas-fired assets increased 10.9 million tons CO₂e, or 0.7%.
