For the first time since 2021, U.S. cargo theft declined year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026, but the relief may be short-lived, according to Overhaul’s U.S. Q1-2026 Cargo Theft Report.
“The year-over-year decline is a positive signal, but the risk still remains high, and what that risk looks like is changing,” says Barry Conlon, CEO and founder of Overhaul. “The growth in deceptive pickup schemes tells us that organized networks are investing in fraud infrastructure, and when criminals are forging identities and impersonating carriers, a padlock on a trailer isn’t going to stop them. That’s a threat you have to monitor, verify, and catch in real time.”
Key takeaways:
· The report recorded 574 incidents across the country, an average of 6.4 per day, and found that even as overall volume dipped, the nature of cargo theft is changing. Fraud-based schemes grew more prevalent, new product categories emerged as targets, and theft activity spread into regions that haven’t historically been hotspots.
· Cargo theft typically slows in the first quarter as logistics activity dips after the holiday season. While that pattern held in Q1, the decline was smaller than expected. Incidents only fell 25% from Q4 2025, compared to a 34% drop during the same seasonal window a year earlier. The gap suggests that while theft volume is easing, risk levels remain elevated.
· While overall volume dropped, there were significant increases in the schemes thieves are using and the products they’re targeting. Deceptive pickup, where criminals use fake identities, forged credentials, and carrier impersonation to walk away with legitimate loads, rose 31% compared to Q1 2025. Nearly half of those incidents occurred in California.
· Among product categories, auto and parts saw the sharpest increase, with thefts jumping 142% from Q4 2025 and 51% year-over-year. Electronics remained the most frequently targeted category overall, accounting for 17% of incidents, followed by food and drinks (15%), auto and parts (11%), and clothing and shoes (11%).
· Geographically, California (36%) and Texas (17%) remain the Top 2 states for cargo theft, but theft is becoming more widespread. Illinois surged from 6% of national incidents in Q1 2025 to 13% in Q1 2026, with 45% of those thefts targeting electronics. Tennessee rose to 12%, up from 9% in Q1 2025.
