Most forwarders lose margin or merely hold ground during the Lunar New Year period, with delayed decision-making, poor visibility, and misalignment between teams cited more frequently than capacity constraints or carrier behaviour, according to data revealed by OntegosCloud.
“Chinese New Year has quietly become a profit separator,” says Oliver Gritz, founder and CEO of OntegosCloud. “The market conditions are largely the same for everyone, and it really should be approached as an opportunity. But too many companies survive rather than thrive. What differs is how prepared organizations are to execute under pressure.”
Key takeaways:
· Most forwarders approach Chinese New Year (CNY) defensively, focusing on damage limitation rather than growth. Only a small minority say they consistently use the period to gain competitive advantage.
· CNY falls Feb. 17, but factory closures typically span 2-3 weeks. The resulting pre-holiday export rush is already pushing container spot rates higher as demand rises, with air freight markets set to spike as the shutdown approaches.
· Commercial outcomes during the CNY period are value-destructive for most of the industry. Nearly four in 10 respondents say their organizations typically lose margin while trying to keep customers satisfied, while a further 35% report merely “holding ground“ without gaining any commercial upside.
· By contrast, only 18% say they outperform less-prepared competitors during the CNY period, and just 9% report turning the disruption into a sustained commercial advantage, underscoring how sharply the period separates a small group of winners from the rest of the market.
· Contrary to common perception, respondents more frequently cited internal execution factors than external market forces as the primary drivers of CNY outcomes.
· Internal planning and preparation (56%), quality of operational data and visibility (49%), and speed of internal decision-making (44%) emerged as the clearest differentiators in determining how organizations perform through the CNY period.
· More than 83% indicated that execution gaps play a significant or moderate role in how internal execution issues amplify CNY-related challenges. The finding reinforces the view that CNY outcomes are shaped less by the disruption itself than by how organizations respond to it once pressure builds.
· The most common internal breakdowns during the build-up to CNY were delayed or reactive decision-making (52%); limited real-time visibility into shipments and margins (47%); and poor alignment between operations, pricing, and finance (43%).
· Looking ahead, 90% of respondents said execution will be critical or important to managing predictable disruptions like CNY in the future. The findings suggest that as freight markets remain volatile, companies who invest in planning, visibility, and cross-functional alignment will increasingly separate themselves from peers.
"Freight forwarding is a highly profitable business when run properly - CNY just exposes who's doing it right," says Gritz. "Delayed decisions, poor visibility and misaligned teams aren't exceptional failures. They happen every year, which means they're solvable."
"Volatility is now the baseline," he adds. "Forwarders who embed execution discipline into their operating system will consistently outperform. Those still relying on heroics will see margins erode - not just at CNY, but at every peak."
