Following a 2022 surplus, wholesaler inventories have trended leaner over the last three years. The inventories-to-sales (I/S) ratio decreased steadily from November 2022 through October 2025. This reduction has intensified markedly over the past quarter; between November 2025 and February 2026, the I/S ratio plunged to its lowest point since 2021, the peak period of freight market tightness.
Despite a recent cooling in consumer demand, these thinning upstream inventories may signal a forthcoming increase in trucking volumes, potentially exacerbating current market tightening, according to Uber Freight’s monthly economic and market update.
“Recent spot rate increases were primarily driven by fuel costs, with surcharges rising from 43 cents/mile in February to 65 cents/mile in March, driving rates up by almost 30% year-over-year. While contract rates have seen a modest 5-6% year-over-year growth (excluding fuel), they are expected to climb further if spot market pressure persists. Shippers should prepare for continued tightening through Q2, especially as seasonal demand in Southern regions follows recent counter-seasonal rate climbs observed in early April,” the report says.
Key takeaways:
· The most significant drawdowns relative to demand have occurred within the durable goods sectors, specifically affecting furniture, machinery, metals and minerals, and various other miscellaneous durable products.
· Following a counter-seasonal tightening in Q1, shippers should prepare for a tighter Q2 due to rising produce volumes.
· Manufacturing is exhibiting early signs of a rebound, yet sectors such as chemicals, packaging, and consumer retail are stagnating.
· Capacity is still decreasing as a result of increased diesel costs and more stringent regulatory environments. Conversely, robust tractor orders demonstrate a desire among carriers to grow their operations, with these units anticipated to enter service as sales between late 2026 and the beginning of 2027.
· Following a counter-seasonal tightening in Q1, shippers should prepare for a tighter Q2 due to rising produce volumes. For the remainder of the year, forecast a 15-25% increase in spot rates year-over-year compared to 2025, with contract rates expected to rise by 5-10%.
· Anticipate—and prepare for—further market tightening throughout May and June, driven by DOT week and the surge in summer produce volumes. Historically, spot rates have climbed 8% during this April-to-June window.
