2027 Forecast: Spot Market Rates Expected to Rise 10%

Truckload rates continue coming down from the peak levels in early July.

Truckload supply pressures have eased somewhat and uneven consumer spending has kept demand from rising, resulting in more of the normal seasonal trends expected at this time of year.

This has prompted a modest reduction in C.H. Robinson’s full-year 2026 spot-market forecasts for both dry van and refrigerated truckload.

However, the fundamental story of the freight market remains largely unchanged.

Elevated insurance costs, stricter driver requirements, federal enforcement actions, and other business challenges continue removing capacity from the market.

“This creates a market that remains increasingly sensitive to disruptions. Seasonal events, weather, enforcement campaigns, and year-end shipping patterns are expected to create greater volatility than in recent years because there is less excess capacity available to absorb sudden changes in freight demand,” the report says.

Key takeaways:

·        Looking ahead, truckload forecast for cost per mile for dry van truckload in 2027 is projected to increase approximately 10% year over year (y/y) compared to 2026. The forecast reflects a market where freight demand remains relatively muted in the near term, but transportation supply continues to contract. As capacity exits the market, costs are expected to increase steadily through 2027, even without a significant change in underlying freight demand.

·        While economic uncertainty remains a key variable, the current outlook assumes that the contraction of trucking supply will continue to outpace freight growth, resulting in a gradually firmer pricing environment through 2027.

·        Unlike the dry van and refrigerated markets, flatbed typically peaks during the summer construction season before softening into the fall. Recent construction spending data has been mixed, but continued investment in manufacturing, energy projects, and data center construction is helping support demand. Market conditions remain significantly stronger than the previous three years.

·        While rates have softened from their summer highs, current expectations call for an increase of approximately 28% y/y in 2026 and 10% y/y in 2027.

·        From a mileage perspective, length of haul continues to be a determining factor of route guide conditions, with shorter hauls of less than 400 miles (1.25) performing significantly better than those shipments greater than 600 miles (1.52).

·        Geographically, the South experienced the largest improvement of all regions as peak produce season wrapped up, improving to 1.32 compared to 1.43 the previous month.

·        The refrigerated truckload market is undergoing a significant seasonal transition as produce harvests shift north across the United States. While overall market conditions remain balanced between trucking supply and demand, freight demand and pricing trends are increasingly diverging between northern and southern growing regions.

·        Throughout the third quarter, northern markets have experienced a meaningful tightening of refrigerated capacity. The outbound load-to-truck ratio in northern regions has increased 2-3 times compared to early summer levels, while spot rates have climbed by double-digit percentages.

·        Much of this activity is being driven by seasonal harvest cycles. Commodities such as potatoes, onions, sweet corn, apples, cherries, and other late-summer produce are increasing outbound freight demand across the Upper Midwest, Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes, and other northern agricultural regions. As these harvests accelerate, competition for refrigerated equipment has intensified and carriers have been able to command stronger pricing.

·        Looking ahead, these seasonal patterns are expected to continue. Freight originating in northern regions traditionally experiences strengthening cost-per-mile trends through the remainder of the harvest season, even as load-to-truck ratios begin to level off. The combination of harvest activity, seasonal food demand, and year-end shipping patterns are primary drivers.

• Capacity continues to tighten, with elevated tender rejections and growing carrier selectivity.
• Dedicated and round-trip freight continue to be favored over transactional freight, with many carriers prioritizing long-term commitments and network efficiency.
• Carrier bankruptcies, regulatory enforcement, and the resulting tighter capacity are expected to support a firmer pricing environment over the coming quarters.
• Insurance remains one of the fastest-growing operating expenses, with several carriers reporting double-digit increases and significantly higher deductibles.
• Federal enforcement actions continue to reduce the pool of available drivers, even for carriers not directly impacted by tighter CDL regulations.
• Carriers are maintaining higher hiring standards and seeking experienced, reliable operators. Recruiting and retaining qualified drivers remains a challenge, despite increased recruiting budgets, referral programs, and wage investments.
• Additional driver pay increases are anticipated across portions of the industry as carriers work to remain competitive.
• Fleet growth remains limited. Most carriers are focused on higher utilization of existing equipment, replacement as needed, and using trucks for dedicated opportunities rather than adding significant truck capacity.
• Trailer counts are under increased scrutiny, with some carriers reducing trailer inventories and controlling assets more tightly.
• Maintenance and parts costs continue to impinge on profitability, although availability issues have largely eased compared to prior years.