Full-year demand for 2025, measured in cargo ton-kilometers (CTK), increased 3.4% compared to 2024 (4.2% for international operations), while full-year capacity in 2025, measured in available cargo ton-kilometers (ACTK), increased by 3.7% compared to 2024 (5.1% for international operations), according to new data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
“Air cargo delivered a strong performance in 2025, with demand up 3.4% year-on-year. Global e-commerce strength drove volumes, even as trading relationships with the US faced rising tariffs, the removal of de minimis tariff exemptions, and continuing policy uncertainty. Air cargo rose to the occasion. It adapted quickly to support global businesses and supply chains as they front-loaded product deliveries ahead of tariff impositions and adjusted to rising demand within Asia and between Asia and Europe as US-Asia trade stagnated,” says Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general.
Key takeaways:
- December 2025 brought the year to a close with continued strong performance. Global demand was 4.3% above December 2024 levels (5.5% for international operations). Global capacity was 4.5% above December 2024 levels (6.4% for international operations).
- Full-year yields fell 1.5% year-on-year. This is the smallest decline in three years as a more normal supply-demand balance is achieved and the exceptionally strong yields of COVID and post-COVID continue to taper. Despite competitive pressure capping air cargo’s pricing power, yields remain 37.2% above 2019 levels.
- Global trade in goods grew by 2.5% annually in 2024. Year-to-date, January to November, for 2025, the index grew 4.4% (vs. 2.4% of same period in 2024).
- Jet fuel prices fell 3.1% in December and averaged 9.1% lower in 2025 than in 2024. However, higher crack spreads meant refiners captured more margin, offsetting part of the benefit for airlines.
- Global manufacturing sentiment strengthened in December to reach 50.9. New export orders fell slightly to 49.1, but remained below the 50-point expansion threshold, reflecting ongoing caution amid tariff uncertainty.
- North American carriers saw a 1.3% year-on-year decline in demand growth for air cargo in 2025, the only regional decline and the weakest performance globally. Capacity decreased by 1.1% year-on-year. December year-on-year demand decreased 2.2% and capacity decreased 2.6%.
- 2025 trade lane data shows a clear shift in global air cargo flows from Asia–North America to Asia–Europe driven by tariff pressures and the removal of the U.S. de minimis exemption. The Within Asia, and the Middle East–Asia corridor also recorded strong growth
“Growth in 2026 is expected to moderate slightly to 2.4%, in line with historical trends. We can expect that demand will continue to be shaped by trade and geopolitical developments. Whatever trading patterns emerge, we can be confident that reliance on air cargo to keep global supply chains running will remain, with carriers responding to the challenge by deploying capacity and designing their networks for optimum flexibility,” says Walsh.
