ITS Logistics’ September ITS Supply Chain Report highlights that, although the U.S. economy showed mixed signals in August, growth and consumer spending remained positive, while inflation stubbornly remained above target.
As of now, a recession doesn’t appear imminent, but momentum is clearly slowing, and economic uncertainty continues to rise heading into Q4.
“We’re now seeing ecommerce companies implement a tariff arbitrage strategy in response to the ongoing changes in global trade,” says Josh Allen, chief commercial officer of ITS Logistics. “These companies include everything from the luxury sector on down to those that provide what are considered to be lower-valued goods. This strategy is being leveraged to mitigate shifting tariff impacts and keep overall costs down for their consumers. It is a genius evolution in how companies are adapting to the economic impacts of tariffs and global supply chain management overall.”
Key takeaways:
· Containerized imports at the Top 10 U.S. ports fell 4.1% month-over-month in August, with sharp declines at key West Coast gateways offset by gains at Seattle, Savannah, and Norfolk. The mixed results reflect both seasonal trends and shifting trade patterns as shippers respond to tariff uncertainty. Import volumes remain above pre-pandemic levels but show heightened sensitivity to policy changes, including the recent repeal of the de minimis exemption on low-value parcels and the upcoming U.S.-China tariff truce expiration.
· Now that the de minimis has been completely eliminated, companies are struggling to adjust their operations ahead of the Q4 holiday shopping rush.
· This month’s index highlights the modest Producer Price Index (PPI) increase in August, indicating a small but notable upward movement in costs or prices within the warehousing and storage industry. This relatively minor change suggests that the sector experienced stability with no significant disruptions occurring between July and August.
· As companies further leverage the newly adopted tariff arbitrage strategy — especially during peak seasons with returns — U.S. warehouses will need to be utilized more by retailers in strategic parts of the United States to avoid sending products back from overseas, thereby incurring a new tariff fee.
“Inflation has decreased from peaks but remains above the Fed’s 2% target and rising expectations risk making it more persistent,” adds Allen. “In August, core inflation was 3.1% which signals sticky underlying inflation, remaining above the Federal Reserve’s usual 2% target. The 2.9% headline rate is the highest since January 2025, and the rise above 2.7% and a stronger month-to-month increase (0.4%) suggest inflation picked up pace in August. As a result, consumer confidence in August 2025 showed a slight decline.”
