Seven weeks into the Strait of Hormuz closure, project44 data shows diversions declined again in Week 7, reaching 5,317, the lowest weekly figure of the disruption. But the composition of those diversions has fundamentally changed.
In the early weeks of the disruption, cargo originally destined for UAE ports was being rerouted to India, Sri Lanka, and Oman — real geographic redistribution across the Indian Ocean. In Week 7, 58% of all diversions ended inside the UAE itself, up from 43% in Week 1. The network is not redistributing cargo outward. It is compressing it into a smaller and smaller area.
Key takeaways:
· In Week 1, when the disruption began and carriers scrambled to reroute cargo across the Indian Ocean, 43% of diversions still ended inside the UAE. After seven weeks of supposed adaptation, that share has risen to 58%. The network has not built more capacity elsewhere — it has run out of capacity elsewhere.
· The India decline is equally important. India was absorbing 12–15% of diverted cargo in Weeks 5 and 6. In Week 7, that share dropped to 8%, even as the total number of diversions also fell. The TSP1 (transshipment) dwell at Nhava Sheva stands at 14 days, Mundra at 13.6 days, and Pipavav at 24.6 days. These ports are congested at the transshipment layer, which is precisely where diverted Gulf cargo would arrive.
· Jebel Ali posted a new high every single week of the disruption without exception — from 13.5 days in Week 1 to 46.9 days in Week 7. That is a 3.5-times increase over seven weeks with no sign of inflection. At the current rate of increase (roughly 5–7 days per week), Jebel Ali import dwell would exceed 60 days by the end of May.
· Pipavav’s TSP1 dwell peaked at 36.7 days in Week 5 and has since fallen to 24.6 days, a genuine improvement. Colombo’s TSP1 dwell has been declining since Week 5 and now stands at 9.1 days, approaching pre-disruption levels. These two data points could be read as positive: some relief is filtering through to certain relay nodes.
· Pipavav and Colombo are receiving less cargo in Week 7 — not because congestion has cleared, but because India’s share of diverted cargo has fallen from 15% to 8% and Sri Lanka’s has dropped to under 1%. The dwell improvement at downstream nodes is a consequence of cargo collapsing back into the UAE, not of the network returning to health.
“Weeks 1–4 showed the network scrambling outward — cargo reaching India and Sri Lanka. Weeks 5–7 show the network collapsing inward. Indian Ocean relay ports have filled up, and carriers are now redirecting cargo to the nearest UAE alternative — Fujairah, Khawr Fakkan, Sharjah — and when those fill, to the next nearest. The Fujairah → Khawr Fakkan lane is the starkest illustration: 496 shipments in Week 7, versus zero in the first four weeks. This is not new capacity — it is secondary congestion,” the report says.
