Transatlantic trade is becoming a game of “wait and watch” for Italian exporters, as President Donald Trump introduced a new “global” tariff, setting it at 15% for up to 150 days as of Feb 24, according to Sogese.
Exporters are not cancelling cargo; they are instead pausing decisions, shortening planning cycles, and adjusting shipment timing as they await clarity, introducing volatility into container demand patterns rather than structural contraction.
“We are observing hesitation in the market. When trade policy changes this quickly, exporters prefer to look and wait at the window rather than accelerate commitments. Across Europe, and particularly in Italy, this is translating into irregular booking patterns and more tactical shipment planning, rather than an immediate decline in volumes. Stability and predictability remain essential for exporters to plan with confidence,” says Andrea Monti, CEO, Sogese.
Key takeaways:
· Historically, U.S. tariffs on most EU goods operated under WTO “Most Favored Nation” (MFN) rates. Average applied U.S. tariff on EU goods was ~1–3%, and the trade environment was relatively stable and rules-based.
· Between 2018-2020, there were selective, sector-specific tariffs, which were suspended and reinstated sporadically, which created uncertainties for exporters.
· In 2025, tariffs expanded under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Many EU (including Italian) goods subject to elevated tariff rates, commonly around 15% in structured agreements or imposed programs.
· The United States remained Italy’s largest bilateral trade surplus market in 2025. Italy (and the EU) now face a flat 15% U.S. tariff, which for many products is higher than the rates they were paying before the Supreme Court ruling.
· Weak booking momentum, combined with depot congestion and limited yard space availability, is placing downward pressure on asset pricing. As a result, lease rates for export-oriented containers are currently trading at the lower end of the pricing band.
· In contrast, domestic container demand within Italy remains comparatively resilient. While activity levels are stable to strong, increasing competition is limiting upward pricing movement. Lease rates in the domestic segment remain steady but show limited margin expansion.
“Italian firms are watching both U.S. legal processes and EU diplomatic action. The related uncertainties on refunds, tariff regimes, and the EU-U.S. deal will influence booking behavior, sourcing strategies, and forward planning in the longer term. Beyond 2026, if Congress extends the Section 122 tariff, or if new targeted tariffs are added under other authorities (e.g., Section 301), Italy could face layered tariff exposures,” says Monti.
