After a year marked by economic uncertainty, global business optimism is on the rise for Q1 2026. Improving expectations for export orders, supply chain operations, and financial planning indicate businesses are preparing for the quarter with more confidence. Services and small businesses are leading the recovery, while large businesses and a few economies remain cautious.
“This momentum is anchored by clearer policy paths, steadier financing, and supply chain normalization,” the study says.
Key takeaways:
· In the United States, businesses’ overall confidence remains flat, with inflation concerns weighing heavily as 35.4% of U.S. respondents cite inflation as their top risk for 2026. Sector-wise, global optimism is strongest in consumer-facing industries such as food manufacturing, textiles, and wholesale and retail trade.
· Looking ahead, growth priorities center on technology and efficiency. Over 60% of respondents see technological innovation as the key driver for 2026, reinforcing a technology-led investment cycle focused on artificial intelligence-driven efficiency and automation.
- The Global Business Optimism Index: up 3.5%, ending a year-long slide. Small businesses led (+11.4%) the rise, followed by medium-sized businesses (+3.4%), while large businesses dipped (-3.2%) amid weaker inventory turnover. Notably, large businesses’ optimism about days of inventory outstanding fell 23.5%.
- The Global Supply Chain Continuity Index rose 6.6%, with 28 of 32 economies reporting improved delivery times and lower supplier costs.
- The Global Business Financial Confidence Index is up 6.2%, reflecting improving expectations for margins and liquidity planning.
- The Global Business Investment Confidence Index rose 6.2%; 70% expect higher capital expenditure, with most planning to use internal cash rather than new debt.
- The Global Business ESG Index, which provides a comprehensive assessment of companies’ performance in implementing ESG initiatives, improved 5.1%, driven by customer and supply chain requirements.
