Europe's Weakest Gas Storage in Two Decades Signals Winter Energy Crisis

As Europe and Asia compete for a shrinking pool of available cargoes, European gas storage fell to its lowest level for this time of year since 2009.

Marina Mayer

Sep 10, 2026

Wood Mackenzie

Asghar AdobeStock_1973740545

Europe is entering winter 2026-27 with its weakest gas storage position in nearly two decades, with inventories at their lowest level since 2009. The combination of disrupted LNG supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and depleted storage reserves leaves the continent vulnerable to supply shocks and weather-driven demand spikes, with little buffer to absorb price impacts.

European gas storage fell to 65% full in August 2024, the lowest level for this time of year since 2009
Approximately 20% of global LNG supply has been removed from the market due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions since late February
Wood Mackenzie forecasts winter 2026-27 storage to close at just 21% full, with balances unlikely to normalize before 2028
With storage providing less demand buffering than previous years, Europe faces elevated price volatility and direct impacts on retail and industrial customers
Only a mild winter would ease energy balances; most scenarios predict continued tightness and higher prices

Approximately 20% of global LNG supply has been effectively removed from the market since conflict disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz in late February, according to data released by Wood Mackenzie.

As Europe and Asia compete for a shrinking pool of available cargoes, European gas storage fell to its lowest level for this time of year since 2009, and the continent is now heading into winter-26/27 with one of its weakest storage positions for this stage of the cycle in almost two decades.

"The combination of Hormuz supply disruptions and below-average storage leaves Europe with very little room for error this winter. Storage normally acts as the market's shock absorber, but with inventories at their lowest for this time of year since 2009 and balances unlikely to normalize before 2028, the cost of a cold winter or a supply shock will be felt directly in prices," says David Lewis, principal European gas and LNG analyst at Wood Mackenzie.

Key takeaways:

· Inventories closed the month at 65% full, ahead of Wood Mackenzie's start-of-month forecast. The upside came almost entirely from the demand side.

· August was one of the sunniest months on record, with solar generation significantly exceeding expectations and reducing gas burn in the power sector by an average of almost 16 mcm/d below forecast, even as temperatures remained above seasonal norms for much of the month.

· Supply tracked closely to expectations, with Wood Mackenzie's LNG model predicting European send out with only a marginal error over the same period.

· The stronger renewable output improved the near-term storage outlook. Wood Mackenzie now forecasts European inventories to end summer 2026 at 73% full, with winter-26/27 closing at 21% full.

· The broader picture, however, remains a concern. Europe is entering the winter heating season with limited protection against supply disruptions, infrastructure outages, and weather-driven demand swings. Under the base case, European inventories are not expected to return to the bottom of the five-year storage range until 2028.

· For gas market participants, with storage providing less of a demand buffer than in previous years, the market's ability to absorb shocks is materially reduced. Only a mild winter would ease balances. Most other scenarios point to continued tightness, elevated volatility, and higher prices directly impacting retail and industrial customers across Europe.