Carrier pricing power is near its highest level since early 2022, according to the TRAFFIX Trends Q4 2026 Market Update.
A lack of capacity is the main driver, while diesel reached record levels in September before easing in early October, adding to the pressure.
"Demand is roughly flat heading into Q4, so shippers are paying for a lack of capacity, not a surge in freight," says Alex Fuller, VP of commercial intelligence at TRAFFIX. "Spot rates have dipped below contract again, but they rebounded in late September, and a stronger peak season could pull contract rates up with them. Shippers who wait for relief before setting 2027 budgets risk starting the year underfunded."
Key takeaways:
· Contract rates are roughly 10% higher than in the spring. Spot rates peaked on July 4, rebounded in late September, and are now below contract linehaul rates again. Annualizing late-2026 contract levels implies 4-5% inflation vs. the 2026 average, before any further market increase.
· The three budget scenarios for 2027 are Base case (5-8% higher full-year truckload linehaul rates); Softening case (2-5% higher rates); and tight-market case (8-12% or higher full-year linehaul rates, with double-digit pressure possible on constrained lanes).
· These scenarios are for U.S. truckload linehaul rates, and fuel expense should be budgeted separately.
· Dry van rates are well above last year on fewer trucks, with volatility through year-end.
· Flatbed capacity is tightening rapidly, with upward pressure through peak.
· Temperature-controlled sees no significant drop expected through the end of produce season.
· LTL pricing is expected to stay steady, with carrier increases likely in December and January.
· Drayage disruption is expected to continue through the fourth quarter.
