The tightening of the market tightening that began in December 2025, and is real and will continue, according to data released by DAT Freight & Analytics.
Both dry van and temperature-control markets saw the largest 3-month increase in spot rates since spring of 2020 at 21% and 13%, respectively. This data is prior to the Iran War, in which the impact on fuel prices will only increase rates and lead to further capacity reductions.
Throughout 2025, the U.S. truckload market was slowly emerging from the prolonged freight recession that began in 2022. This cycle jumpstarted in Q4 of 2025, with that holiday/weather surge continuing.
While market conditions are tightening, this shift is primarily driven by supply-side constraints—carrier attrition and capacity exiting the market—rather than a robust surge in overall freight demand.
Following years of suppressed volumes, early 2026 has shown the strongest truckload demand since late 2024, and the spot premium ratio has turned positive for most modes.
However, this transition is severely complicated by economic headwinds and extreme volatility in diesel prices. Fuel remains one of the largest and most unpredictable operating expenses for the industry, currently accounting for 30-40% of total operating costs for many fleets.
In early March, the trucking sector experienced a historic shock: The national average price for on-highway diesel skyrocketed from roughly $3.90 to $4.86 per gallon in just one week. This 96-cent, or 25%, surge represents the largest weekly increase since the federal government began tracking the data in 1994. Consequently, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) sharply revised its annual average diesel outlook upward to $4.12 per gallon.
For small and mid-sized carriers operating on tight margins, these extreme price swings place immediate pressure on working capital and profitability.
Key takeaways:
Dry van: Both contract and spot rates increased this month, with spot rates (once again) rising much faster (6¢/mile vs 2¢/mile for contract). This caused the Spot Premium Ratio (SPR) to jump to 7.9%, the highest since February 2022. The New Rate Differential (NRD) stayed high at +4.2. The Contract Rate Index also increased to 18.3%, the highest level since July 2023. The rise in rates from December seem to be sticking. The continuing poor weather in February certainly helped.
Temperature control. Spot rates jumped 4 cents per mile in February while contract rates increased 3 cents per mile. This caused the Spot Premium Ratio to jump to 5.4%. The New Rate Differential remained positive in February, jumping to its highest level since May 2022. The temperature-control Contract Rate Index increased to 22.4%, the highest rate since July 2023. The surge in rates at the beginning of the year seem to be holding.
Flatbed. Contract rates stayed flat while spot rates increased by 5 cents per mile in February. The Spot Premium Ratio remained negative but moved a little closer to parity at -2.6%. The New Rate Differential jumped to 5.45%, the highest since May 2022. The Contract Rate Index decreased slightly but stayed in the 20% +/- 1% range. Flatbed is interesting since the spot and contract markets serve very different end customers.
Intermodal. The New Rate Differential for intermodal has always been very volatile, especially over the last two years. It bounced back positive in February. The Contract Rate Index jumped to 18.1%, the highest it has been since October 2023. Intermodal typically lags the dry van and temp-control markets. The churning of imports and tariffs are taking a toll on the intermodal industry.
“Ultimately, the U.S. truckload market in 2026 presents a landscape of cautious optimism tempered by significant external risks. While the worst of the freight volume downturn appears to be in the rearview mirror, trucking companies are not yet experiencing a strong expansion phase. To remain competitive, carriers must prioritize resilient, disciplined operations over aggressive fleet expansion, leveraging technology and dynamic rate negotiations to withstand global supply chain disruptions and historic fuel cost volatility. Shippers should focus on securing the right mix of asset and non-asset-based capacity to provide rate stability along with flexibility for unforeseen volume shifts,” according to DAT Freight & Analytics.
