The freight market is entering a more complex phase in 2026 with capacity pressures returning to truckload networks, cargo theft remains elevated across North America, and policy shifts—from tariffs to carrier regulations—are reshaping how shippers plan their networks, according to insights from Uber Freight’s Q1 Market Update and Outlook Report.
Key takeaways:
· First-tender acceptance is hovering around 85%, significantly lower than last year’s 92%. This has led to elevated shipper costs, as rejected shipments are either moving down routing guides or into the spot market.
· Currently, spot rates remain elevated by more than 25% year-over-year, increasing supply-side pressure. But while the rise in spot rates has boosted Class 8 orders, it’s not expected to fully improve capacity in 2026, primarily due to long lead times.
· On the demand side, consumer-oriented lanes, like retail and CPG, are driving volume growth, while industrial sectors remain stagnant. However, manufacturing output and orders have shown positive signs, potentially signaling a recovery.
· Shippers should expect tighter conditions on key lanes, especially in weather-sensitive corridors, as tender rejections rise and spot rates increase. Because of this, closely monitoring the market and exercising caution is key. Right now, leading shippers are locking in reliable capacity ahead of further rate increases. They’re also tracking market shifts and routing guide failures to ensure they’re prepared for any scenario.
· LTL rates are at an all-time high, currently up 5.2% year-over-year. As the truckload market tightens, shipments are likely to overflow into LTL, increasing volume. LTL has faced weak demand, with carriers reducing headcount over the last three years.
· Across North America, cargo theft, fraud, and extortion remain elevated, posing significant operational risk. Although networks have worked to improve security, industry-wide incidents increased by 18% in 2025.
· In ocean shipping, global service schedule reliability decreased modestly month-over-month, to around 63%. Vessel delays are at just over five days, the second-highest since April 2025. However, both metrics are improving year-over-year. Compared to last year, import volumes remain soft, but have begun to normalize after 2025’s tariff-driven surge. For key trades like Asia and Europe, the vessel orderbook points to downward pressure on rates, but geopolitical factors are keeping spot rates and reliability volatile.
· In Mexico and Canada, shippers are increasing mini-bids, executing routing guide resets, and focusing on benchmarking and early Q3 conversations as they respond to new regulations, changing rates, and freight volumes.
