Although there has been a considerable amount of uncertainty surrounding the economy, the U.S. truckload market has remained relatively calm, according to data released by RXO.
For instance, Q2 truckload spot rates and truckload contract rates remained inflationary, but less so compared to Q1.
There has been a considerable amount of volatility in the macroeconomic environment. However, in the United States, real gross domestic product (GDP) rebounded after declining 0.5% in the first quarter.
Here’s Top 6 truckload market trends to watch in later part of 2025.
1. Freight demand could snap back, driving truckload market volatility.
Generally speaking, freight demand has been lagging, leading to weaker truckload volumes and stable spot market rates. Though tariff-related volatility has not yet created a surge of truckload volume, it could later in the year. Many shippers have paused orders, hoping for more favorable trade policies in the near future. If trade tensions continue to de-escalate, a snap back in demand is possible. As shippers look to build inventory ahead of Q4 peak season, there could also be a rush of orders during the end of Q3, leading to port congestion and volatility.
2. Spot rates continue to trail contract rates.
For the past few years, shippers have used their transportation RFPs as opportunities to bring their contract rates (aka primary rates) back toward pre-pandemic levels and they were largely successful. Even though spot rates have bounced off the bottom and been year-over-year inflationary for several quarters, they are, in absolute terms, unable to consistently overtake contract rates.
Here’s an overview of the spot/contract dynamic over the past several months:
· The spot market went year-over-year inflationary, but contract rates were still generally higher in absolute terms. The industry experienced the longest stretch of discounted spot rates compared to contract rates in history, lasting over 2.5 years.
· Spot rates overtook contract rates (in absolute terms) in Q4. Over the Q4 2024 peak season and into January, that trend snapped, and there was an 11-week period where spot rates were finally moving at a premium to contract rates.
· Then the two switched back in Q1. However, by mid-February, this once again reversed, and into Q2, spot rates were consistently moving at a 5-8% discount to contract.
RXO
While a muted spot market in Q1 and early Q2 is normal given typical seasonality, by later in Q2, when produce season and summer shipping ramp up, it almost always becomes tighter. However, this year it didn’t materialize, and spot rates were largely running at a discount to contract. The persistence of these low rates, both in contract and spot, is placing an immense amount of pressure on carriers. If (and likely, when) enough carriers get driven out of the market, it will trigger a rise in spot rates, but the timeline for the flip keeps getting pushed out given weak conditions. When it does eventually happen, those contract rates and routing guides set in the softer market may not survive a tighter market, when the spot market will become more lucrative than the contract market.
3. Class 8 truckload orders continue to drop.
Looking at past truckload market cycles, when times are good for carriers (i.e., high spot rates), they order more trucks, and vice versa. Throughout much of 2023 and 2024, though truckload rates were deflationary, orders remained strong. In 2025, the industry started seeing truckload order trends catch up to market conditions. In Q1, Class 8 tractor orders (as tracked by ACT Research) were down -15.5% year-over-year, and Q2 sank even lower, finishing at -42.7% year-over-year, with June down -35%. This is another indicator showing the financial strain on the supply base from the prolonged soft freight market. Combined with high interest rates and a lack of clarity in the regulatory environment, fleets are purchasing the minimum amount of new equipment.
RXO
There’s also been a significant pullback from large private fleets, which have been a major tailwind to truckload spot rate expansion during this cycle. In response to COVID-era volatility, many shippers built out their private fleets. When demand tapered off in 2023, this incremental new fleet capacity was soaking up a lot of freight that would have previously hit the for-hire market, prolonging the down-cycle. Any continued reduction of large private fleet capacity will be a net gain to the for-hire market.
4. Carrier employment continues to wane.
Throughout most of 2023 and into 2024, driver employment figures remained strong, despite weaker market conditions. As freight volumes dropped, many drivers flocked to the security of larger fleets, which were more exposed to lucrative contract freight. As these drivers shifted from owner-operators (who don’t show up in payroll data) to W2 employees at fleets, it boosted employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This represents a shift in driver supply, not an increase of overall driver capacity. 2024 finally saw carrier attrition show up in BLS employment numbers; continue to see more attrition into 2025.
All employees, truck transportation (from the BLS, through June)
· Decreased sequentially for 17 of the past 24 months
· Decreased year-over-year for 22 of the past 24 consecutive months
Production and non-supervisory employees, long-distance trucking (aka drivers, from the BLS, through May)
· Decreased sequentially for 15 of the past 24 months
· Decreased year-over-year for 24 consecutive months
Operating authorities
The FMCSA tracks carrier operating authorities (new grants, revocations and reinstatements). As mentioned above, owner-operators do not generally show up in employment numbers. Looking at operating authority activity is another way to get a pulse check on a large, fragmented carrier base. Though employment is trending down, in March, April, and May, operating authorities grew. Given the current difficult landscape for carriers, revocations should outpace reinstatements and new grants.
What is probably happening:
· Shuffling of drivers from fleets to owner-operators. Large fleets were reducing their driver base, and these drivers were reinstating or setting up new authorities.
· Generally, seasonality in the spring, operating authority grants increase after a winter of (often) weaker freight volumes. What’s happening now: In June, operating authorities began to decline again. Though year to date, there has been a net increase of 382, the population has declined in 20 of the last 24 months, leading to a total decrease of over 33,127 operating authorities over that timeframe (for context, there were around 100,000 additions from 2020 to 2022).
· Absent a market recovery, elevated insurance premiums and continued cost inflation will likely lead to continued carrier exits over the coming months, particularly those with more exposure to the spot market.
5. Summer shipping events failed to drive market volatility — will peak season?
The combination of DOT Week, Memorial Day, 4th of July and produce season failed to drive sustained volatility — and corresponding rate increases — in Q2. Though the market was able to absorb all those shipping events in stride, it is still far more susceptible to any supply chain shocks than at any previous point over the past two years.
RXO
As evidenced by carrier employment and operating authority data, capacity continues to decrease amidst unsustainably low rates. Tender rejections have also increased higher than at any point since 2022. Any demand stimulus, such as a more robust than expected peak season in Q4, could bring about noticeable market volatility.
6. Language requirement enforcement could constrain capacity.
Existing federal law requires that all commercial truck drivers must: “Read and speak the English language sufficiently to converse with the general public, to understand highway traffic signs and signals in the English language, to respond to official inquiries, and to make entries on reports and records.” On April 28, President Trump signed an Executive Order that places a renewed and increased focus on enforcement of the English proficiency standard. The order stated that within 60 days, the Department of Transportation and FMSCA were to begin enforcing this requirement, placing non-compliant drivers out-of-service. With the enforcement deadline starting at the tail end of Q2, expect some capacity attrition by the end of Q3. This, combined with increased immigration enforcement spending in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act could lead to a noticeable reduction in the overall driver pool.
Key takeaways
· Freight volumes are sluggish, contract and spot rates are comparable, carriers are buying fewer trucks, and carrier attrition in employment continues.
· The speed and severity of the upward climb will depend on if there’s an increase in freight demand, how fast carrier capacity exits the market, or a combination of the two.
· We’re as close to equilibrium, in terms of carrier supply and shipper demand, as we’ve been in over two years. Relatively speaking, the capacity situation is more fragile than at this time last year. With a continued difficult landscape for carriers, it could set the stage for volatility at the end of 2025.
