FTR reports U.S. trailer net orders firmed on a seasonal basis in October, climbing 77% month-over-month (m/m) to 15,916 units but coming in 5% below year-ago levels. The sharp m/m rebound points to renewed fleet engagement – and fewer cancellations – but order volumes remain far below the 10-year October average of 37,116 as operators continue to grapple with soft freight demand, weak profitability, elevated input costs, and persistent uncertainty over trade policy and macroeconomic conditions.
“The U.S. trailer market continues to experience meaningful pressure from volatile trade policy, elevated material costs, and weakening fleet sentiment. Although a Supreme Court ruling could eliminate country-specific tariffs depending on the outcome, the main tariff cost for the trailer industry comes from the 50% Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper that will be unaffected,” says Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles.
Key takeaways:
· Cancellations eased to just above 5%, suggesting some stabilization. However, many fleets remain cautious and are postponing 2026 commitments until market conditions and pricing visibility improve. The modest year-over-year (y/y) decline underscores that ordering behavior is still primarily replacement-driven with limited evidence of fleets adding growth capacity.
· For 2025 to date, net trailer orders total 135,525 units, up 18% y/y. This increase primarily reflects backloaded demand following the November 2024 election, which pushed activity into the first quarter of 2025 that normally would have occurred in late 2024. Despite that weak start to the 2025 order cycle, the early read on the 2026 order season is even softer. Cumulative orders for September and October combined are down 15% y/y to 24,917 units as multiple market headwinds weigh on fleet sentiment.
- Trailer production edged slightly lower in October with builds down 2% m/m but 2% higher y/y at 17,527 units. Despite the modest pullback, many OEMs have continued building at relatively elevated rates likely to preserve labor continuity, support fixed-cost absorption, draw down lingering component inventories ahead of year-end, or preempt potential tariff-related cost pressures. Backlogs declined 2% m/m and 14% y/y to 71,990 units, keeping the backlog/build ratio steady at 4.1 months – its lowest point since mid-2020. With production still running ahead of demand, OEMs will need to meaningfully lower build rates soon unless the 2026 order season gains further traction.
