Capacity and its deployment dominate the outlook for shippers this year as they digest the impact of tariffs, the potential rebound in Red Sea traffic, and the introduction of the new alliance Gemini, according to AlixPartners’ 2025 Container Shipping Outlook Report, “Navigating the Crosscurrents.”
“The double whammy effect of Suez reopening and Gemini cooperation on container shipping operations could be nothing short of revolutionary,” says Marc Iampieri, global co-leader of AlixPartners’ Logistics & Transportation practice. “And we could see a triple whammy if a raft of new tariffs is imposed by the U.S. and other major trading nations. Once the Red Sea crisis is resolved, the supply-demand dynamic could shift in favor of shippers, and rates could fall as quickly as they rose.”
Key takeaways:
- The tailwinds from the Suez Canal diversions, industrial action at ports, and a U.S. soft landing reversed early expectations in 2024, and resulted in container shippers enjoying one of their best years on record. The disruptions continue this year with the potential impact of U.S. and retaliatory tariffs combining with a wave of new capacity and efforts to remake global shipping networks.
- According to the report, returning to normal routes will release capacity in addition to the flotilla of new-build ships that promise to upset the supply-demand balance in shipping. A vast amount of new capacity will become available over the next five years or so, after carriers ordered a record amount of TEU in 2024, with 200 new vessels in 2025 alone, said the study.
- The report notes that with the shift to three alliances, plus MSC as a standalone company, there is a significant reduction in market concentration. With the addition of a 9-10% increase in capacity, the reopening of the Red Sea route would trigger a significant change in competition to meet capacity.
