Confidence among small and midsize business (SMB) CEOs saw significant gains in the fourth quarter of 2025 as leaders grew more comfortable operating in ongoing economic uncertainty, according to the latest CEO Confidence Index from Vistage. The Index climbed seven points in Q4 to 88.9, nearly seven points above its three-year average and marking the strongest reading of 2025.
"This increase doesn't signal a return to euphoria," says Joe Galvin, Vistage's chief research officer. "Following the election, optimism made way to rising costs and uneven demand. But now, CEOs have recalibrated expectations. They're no longer waiting for policy clarity—they're focused on what they can control and identifying opportunities for their businesses. As sentiment stabilizes, CEOs are sharpening their focus on driving performance in 2026."
Key takeaways:
· Vistage's latest quarterly survey of SMB CEOs found that while optimism has not returned to the highs seen a year ago following the 2024 election, leaders are gaining clarity around the realities they expect to face in 2026. CEOs are increasingly focused on navigating a range of manageable outcomes rather than waiting for policy certainty.
· After hovering in a tight range through the first three quarters of 2025, the Index increased sharply in Q4, rising to 88.9.
- Nearly seven in 10 (69%) SMB CEOs expect higher sales revenues in the year ahead, a nine-point jump from Q3.
- A majority (53%) anticipate improved profitability, though these gains remain tempered by ongoing pressure from labor, insurance, and supplier costs.
- 36% plan to increase fixed investments over the next 12 months.
- 57% of SMB CEOs plan to raise prices in the next three months. Of those, 8% expect increases greater than 10%; 19% anticipate hikes of 7-10%; 46% plan increases of 4-6%; and 24% expect increases of 1-3%.
- 57% of SMB CEOs plan to increase headcount in the next 12 months, up from 48% the prior quarter, while just 7% anticipate workforce reductions.
- CEOs are responding to skilled labor shortages and rising wages by hiring beyond U.S. borders: 38% currently hire workers who live outside the United States—15% as employees and 23% as contractors—with another 5% planning to do so in the future.
- More than three-quarters (76%) of SMB CEOs report personally using generative AI, citing benefits such as improved strategic thinking, faster research and analysis, and streamlined communication and administrative tasks.
- Nearly one in four SMB CEOs (23%) report experiencing a cyberattack in the past year.
- While 58% have a cyber risk strategy that is current and reviewed annually, 16% still report having no defined strategy.
