The tariff landscape in 2025 has been shaped by the sweeping overhaul introduced on April 2, known by the current administration as “Liberation Day.” The United States imposed a flat 10% tariff on nearly all imported goods while raising duties on strategic sectors such as steel, aluminum, autos and auto parts under Section 232. Some auto-related categories now face tariffs of 25%, and the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act broadened coverage even further with certain products carrying total tariff burdens above 40%. These changes triggered immediate supply chain disruptions, increasing costs and prompting companies to reassess sourcing strategies, pricing and inventory management.
Despite signs of stabilization, uncertainty persists, according to project44. With policy outcomes still unresolved, shipping patterns may continue normalizing for now, but the broader legal and regulatory landscape leaves the door open for renewed volatility.
Key takeaways:
· In 2025, blank sailings data illustrates how carriers are responding to tariff-driven disruption in U.S. trade.
· April 2025 marks the peak in blank sailings at a total of 131 blank sailings across these 6 routes. The lanes with the most blank sailings that month were Asia to the United States at 39, China to the United States at 33, and the United States to China at 30. These three lanes have had the highest rates of blank sailings throughout the year.
· January has seen the lowest amount of blank sailings along these lanes in over a year, hopefully signaling that the schedule interruptions found a new normal and will remain stable barring major changes in trade policies. Only 11 total blank sailings took place along these major trade routes through January, with United States to China and United States to Europe having the most at 3.
· While tariffs on major trade partner China have been reduced in recent months, their effects continue to ripple through supply chains. A closer look at U.S./China trade flows in 2025 reveals sharp swings tied directly to tariff actions and market anticipation.
· On the import side, shipments from China to the United States fell 29% in 2025 compared to the volume in 2024. January shows that this decline is continuing for the foreseeable future with a 35% decline in volume compared to January 2025. This comes at a time where companies typically order surplus inventory in order to prepare for the Lunar New Year.
· In response to the U.S. tariffs, China passed their own tariffs on U.S. goods, impacting exports from the United States to China.
· On the export side, shipments from the United States to China are under even greater pressure, with exports to China dropping 37% in 2025 compared to 2024. January saw a 20% decline compared to 2025, showing that this trade relationship is still under pressure.
· With volumes out of China decreasing, Indonesia and Thailand are emerging as alternative suppliers, with imports up 30% from Thailand and 34% from Indonesia in 2025 compared to 2024. Both countries still face tariffs (+19% since January, plus product-specific surcharges), but demand has nevertheless grown throughout 2025.
“Overall, 2025 data highlights the significant impact of tariff-driven disruption on U.S. trade flows and carrier scheduling decisions. Blank sailings peaked mid-year before steadily declining, reaching their lowest levels in over a year by January 2026, suggesting a return to more stable sailing schedules. Trade volumes between the U.S. and China declined sharply on both the import and export sides, reflecting the continued pressure of reciprocal tariffs despite brief improvements late in the year. As imports from China slow, U.S. importers are increasingly shifting sourcing strategies toward Southeast Asia, with Indonesia in particular emerging as a strong alternative supplier,” according to project44.
