Total demand, measured in cargo ton-kilometers (CTK), fell by 4.8% compared to March 2025 levels (-5.5% for international operations). And, capacity, measured in available cargo ton-kilometers (ACTK), decreased by 4.7% compared to March 2025 (-6.8% for international operations), according to data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
“Air cargo demand fell 4.8% in March compared to the previous year. This was mostly due to severe disruptions at major Gulf hubs due to war in the Middle East. The timing of the usual post–Lunar New Year slowdown also added to the decline. The underlying demand trends, at this point, appear strong and the recent World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund revisions to trade and GDP projections continue to see growth in 2026. Importantly, air cargo networks are providing the flexibility needed to support global supply chains as they adjust to geopolitical, tariff, and operational strains. All eyes are on fuel supply and price, which are expected to test the industry’s resilience in the coming months,” says Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general.
Key takeaways:
- Global industrial production grew by 3.1% year-on-year in February, marking the 38th consecutive month of expansion. The global goods trade rose by 8.0% year-on-year in February.
- Jet fuel prices rose sharply in March, up 106.6% year-on-year, alongside a 43.1% increase in crude oil prices and a 320% surge in refining margins.
- Global manufacturing sentiment remained in growth territory in March, easing slightly from February. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 51.4. The PMI for new export orders was 50.1—both above the 50-point expansion threshold—signaling positive conditions for air cargo demand.
- North American carriers saw a 1.2% year-on-year decrease in air cargo demand in March. Capacity decreased by 1.1% year-on-year.
